Solution:
For these types of question, use the Total Probability Theorem/Formula.P(B1)=P(B2)=P(B3)=13Probability of mint from Bag#P(M|B1)=12P(M|B2)=35P(M|B3)=23P(B1|M)=(P(B1)⋅P(M|B1))÷(P(B1)P(M|B1)+P(B2)P(M|B2)+PP(B3)P(M|B3))
The probability that Jane chose bag 1, given that she selects a mint is equal to the probabilityJane chose a mint from bag #1 divided by the probability that she selected a mint.
P(B1|M)=(13⋅12)(13⋅12)+(13⋅35)+(13⋅23)=1553≈0.28301
GA